The temperature profile of the Earth’s atmosphere reflects a balance between the radiation, convective and dynamical heating/cooling of surface-atmosphere system. Any changes in vertical temperature profiles will have impacts on atmospheric stability which is directly related to diverse types of weather systems such as thunder storm and their severity.
In this study, we first analyze observed changes in long-term (20-year) mean vertical temperature profiles for Australian monitoring sites, and then assess the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model’s capability to simulate observed temperature profiles. Subsequently we use outputs of 12 historical and future Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations (each with three-time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate future changes in mean annual and seasonal vertical temperature profiles for different climate zones in Australia. Results for selected CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and their downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCMs) will also be included for comparison.
The results show that there are substantial changes in vertical temperature profiles for Australia, which will dramatically impact local weather systems such as near surface inversion. Further assessments are required to quantify potential impacts of these changes.