Lightning Lecture AMOS Annual Meeting and International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography

The 4km ACCESS-TC3 Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System (#1068)

Jim Fraser 1 , Yi Xiao 2 , Thomas Coleman 2 , Hongyan Zhu 1 , Peter Steinle 1 , Gary Dietachmayer 1 , Jeff Kepert 1 , Robin Bowen 1
  1. Environment and Research Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia
  2. National Operations Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia

A new 4km resolution APS3 version of the ACCESS-TC tropical cyclone numerical weather prediction system has been developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and is scheduled for operational implementation in mid-2019.  This version (commonly known as ACCESS-TC3) will replace the existing 12km resolution ACCESS-TC2 system.  The general framework of the new ACCESS-TC3 system retains many similarities with the previous system, i.e. it remains a deterministic analysis and prediction system that produces 3-day forecasts for up to 3 concurrent TCs on relocatable 33°x33° domains within the Greater Asian tropics covering the Western Pacific and Eastern Indian Oceans.  Data assimilation is performed in five 6-hourly assimilation cycles over the previous 24-hours.  Unlike the previous system though, ACCESS-TC3 is run in convection permitting mode rather than using a parameterised convection scheme. The model physics configuration is based on the RA1-T tropical model settings developed by the UK Met Office as part of the Regional Model Evaluation and Development (RMED) process. The enhanced horizontal resolution allows the ACCESS-TC3 model to develop much deeper and more realistic central pressures than the previous system.  Verification of the ACCESS-TC3 forecast performance will be presented and compared against the performance of a version using simple downscaled initial conditions (i.e. without any observational data assimilation).