Oral Presentation AMOS Annual Meeting and International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography

Assessing long term suitability of Australian wine regions: impact of climate model selection (#122)

Cindy M Liles 1 , Danielle C Verdon-Kidd 1
  1. School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle, Callaghan , NSW, Australia

Wine-grapes are grown in narrow climatic and geographic ranges. As such, the viticulture industry is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, as relatively small changes in climate can alter the suitability of that region for growing particular varieties. Such vulnerability is multifaceted, with impacts on both quality and quantity, and at the core, the spatial sustainability. Improved quantification of the potential impact of climate change on this industry is much needed in order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. To address this, we utilise spatial suitability analysis to identify regions of vulnerability (or potential expansion) in the future. Spatial suitability models were developed based on four established climatic parameters (maximum temperature, spring frost, annual precipitation and latitude adjusted growing season temperature) for both warm (Shiraz) and cool (Chardonnay) climate varieties. Baseline suitability was defined using ANUCLIM (1990-2010) data, while potential climate change impacts were assessed using projections from NARCliM data for near-future (2020-2039) and far-future (2060-2079). A total of 12 future scenarios were assessed based on a high emission scenario. Overall this analysis highlights that, regardless of model selection,  the area suitable for wine-grapes is likely to decrease in the future, with a general southward movement of wine region suitability, by up to 200km. Queensland and New South Wales wine regions were shown to be most vulnerable to climate change, particularly for cool climate varieties. However, wine regions at elevation or southern latitude are projected to be less effected, with some regions exhibiting potential for expansion of existing regions. Model selection was shown to be most important at the regional scale, particularly at the northern margin of NSW. Importantly, this study highlights the potential impacts of climate change on the wine industry and presents a geospatial method that can be adopted for other regions and agricultural practices.