Oral Presentation AMOS Annual Meeting and International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography

Improved climate prediction services for Australia (#276)

Robyn Duell 1 , David Jones 1 , Oscar Alves 1 , Andrew Watkins 1
  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VICTORIA, Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is nearing the end of a federal government, Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper funded project to make major improvements to its climate outlook service (forecasting for the weeks, months and season ahead). An update on the progress of the project will be presented. 

The improvements include the introduction of a new high resolution and more accurate dynamical forecast model, forecasts that update more frequently and provisions of new weekly forecasts. The weekly forecasts will fill the gap between the Bureau’s current seven day weather forecast and monthly and seasonal climate outlooks. For the first time the Bureau will be providing a service from days to weeks to months to seasons.    

The improvements were made possible by the Bureau’s new supercomputer and the introduction of a new modelling system (ACCESS-S, the Australian Community Climate and Earth–System Simulator – Seasonal), developed in collaboration with the UK Met Office. Analysis of the new modelling system over Australia indicates accuracy is significantly better than the previous operational POAMA model. 

In addition to the introduction of a new modelling system, the improved service will include changes in the communication and presentation of the model outputs, making outlooks more accessible and usable. 

The improved service has been co-developed with users and will deliver better intelligence to Australian industry that will improve management of climate risks in Australia. Details of recent and upcoming service improvements were presented. 

Visit the Bureau’s climate outlook service on the web: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead