Oral Presentation AMOS Annual Meeting and International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography

  Record-setting temperature extremes over the coming century: the benefits of limiting global warming (#67)

Scott B Power 1 , François PD Delage 1
  1. Bureau of Meteorology, 3001, VIC, Australia

Changes in the intensity or frequency of extreme climate events can profoundly increase the disruption caused by climate change. The more extreme these events are, the greater the potential to push ecosystems and communities beyond their ability to cope. The rate at which existing high temperature records have been broken has increased in response to rising global greenhouse gas emissions, and the rate at which historical records are surpassed is projected to increase further over the coming century. Years setting new records are an important subset of years with temperatures exceeding the historical record, as unprecedented events have the potential to cause impacts on people and ecosystems that are catastrophic. Here we examine record setting in 22 CMIP5 climate models. By the end of the 21st century, under business-as-usual increases in global emissions (RCP8.5), high monthly mean temperature records are set in approximately 58% of the world every year. This figure drops to 14% under a scenario with much lower GHG concentrations (RCP2.6). In any given year, the likelihood of 'smashing' at least one monthly record by more than 1.0°C is much less likely under RCP2.6 than it is under RCP8.5. Equivalent results for Australia will be presented.